Insider Used Car Market Data

Manheim Auto Auctions held a conference call to shed light on current automotive market trends and consumer sentiments across various industries. Despite inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, consumer spending remains robust, exhibiting an upward trend in sentiment. This unexpected positivity amid economic concerns is crucial for car buyers, insurers, and dealerships to comprehend the present market scenario and anticipate future shifts.

Retail Supply and Vehicle Inventory
The discussion unveiled an improvement in retail supply, affecting both new and used vehicles. While the new car inventory situation has started to ameliorate, the used car inventory is also showing signs of progress. The presentation emphasized the challenging yet improving scenario in the realm of vehicle supply.

Wholesale Vehicle Values: A Historical Perspective
The presentation analyzed wholesale vehicle values, noting a significant annual decrease, the most substantial in history. However, this crash needs contextualization. Despite the noticeable drop, the values remain considerably higher than the historical trend line, revealing that the depreciation is more about returning substantial gains than falling below the average.

Depreciation Trends Across Vehicle Ages
The depreciation rates across different vehicle ages, be they one-year-old, five-year-old, or ten-year-old cars, are following almost parallel lines. This uniformity in the depreciation trend across various car ages was a notable highlight of the discussion, suggesting a consistent devaluation pattern.

Rental vehicle mileage trends
An intriguing aspect covered was the mileage trends of rental vehicles over the years. The analysis showcased a shift in mileage, especially in cars coming from rental companies like Enterprise, Hertz, and Avis. Historically, rental cars maintained mileage around 30,000 to 40,000 miles, correlating with warranty periods. However, in recent years, the mileage has soared to 60,000–80,000 miles due to supply chain challenges, impacting the used car market with higher mileage inventory.

Impact on Used Car Inventory and Transaction Trends
The increased mileage on rental cars influenced the overall used car inventory, leading to a surplus of vehicles with higher mileage on dealership lots. This shift in rental car mileage standards substantially affected the uniformity of mileage across different models and dealerships, creating a noticeable pattern in the market.

Top Volume Vehicles and Transaction Prices
Highlighting the top volume of vehicles transacted, the discussion focused on popular models like the Toyota Corolla, Nissan Altima, and Ford Explorer, all predominantly selling within the teens in terms of transaction prices. This detailed breakdown of transaction figures underscored the affordability and demand for these vehicles in the current market.

Future Outlook and Projections
Finally, the conference call provided an outlook indicating a potential decline of around four percent in the upcoming year. This forecasted overview offered insights into the trajectory of the used car market, drawing from Manheim Auto Auctions’ extensive experience and vantage point, considering their involvement across dealer, consumer, and fleet transactions.

This comprehensive analysis and insights from the Manheim Auto Auctions conference call offer a valuable understanding of the current state of the automotive market, potential future shifts, and the driving forces behind evolving trends in vehicle transactions and values.

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